This blog I penned on 12 May 2022 at around 11 something AM. The intraday low later in the day was 1.03520. Making it the third worst performing day since 2003. This blog was written because I felt something was up in the market:
In early morning trade today, EURUSD hit 1.04458 and continuing the previous day’s sell-off. It would be safe to say that the sell-off in EUROs isn’t done but where could it be heading? Here are the EURO’s Top 5 worst days* (Also the USD Top 5 best days against the EUR!):
To be fair, EURUSD has hit 1.044 in the big figures 5 times before, most recently on 2 January 2017 and, all 5 times, during the same Dec 2016 – Jan 2017 period.
I’m not saying that we’ll say these lows now or worse than these. What I am saying is that this is unusual territory for the EUR and I’m curious to know what’s driving it apart from the obvious.
In fact, I’ll defer to a Nassim Taleb quote from the Black Swan “History is certainly not a place to theorize or derive general knowledge, nor is it meant to help in the future, without some caution”